Tova podcast: Ex-leadership of National, ACT, NZ First predict trouble for Chris Luxon’s tax cuts

Former leadership from the parties currently in coalition talks are unanimous: Winston Peters will be part of our next government. Tova podcast: Ex-leadership of National, ACT, NZ First predict trouble for Chris Luxon’s tax cuts

On the Tova podcast this week, a special powerhouse ‘alternative coalition’ of one former leader and two deputy leaders of National, ACT and NZ First share their experiences and insider knowledge of the actual coalition negotiations currently being headed by Christopher Luxon.

First up, the panel was asked if Winston Peters will be holding the cards once the special votes are counted and the Port Waikato by-election is taken into account.

“Yeah, I think so,” said former National Party leader Simon Bridges.

“Yes, I broadly agree with Simon,” said ACT’s former deputy Heather Roy.

And from NZ First’s former deputy leader Ron Mark: “Yeah I think the balance of responsibilities is going to fall down to two parties – it’ll be ACT and NZ First and it’s going to be a question of what do they both want?”

Bridges says that regardless of the final outcome, Peters will likely be brought into the fold.

“If you’re sitting in Chris Luxon and co’s shoes, you’d want three parties in government, you’d want a buffer, so I think the most likely scenario, in any kind of scenario, is three parties in government.”

By way of example, Roy pointed to the 2008 Government formed by then Prime Minister John Key.

Key ran a minority government with confidence and supply arrangements from three other parties – ACT, the Māori Party and United Future – and even went on to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Green Party.

“So that buffer was there and it also meant that the ACT Party couldn’t exert too much influence because there was a third party there to help, so there’s all sorts of advantages to the larger party,” says Roy.

Mark cautioned against thinking this is all about Peters.

“This is as much in the hands of ACT as it is with New Zealand First. ACT’s got to agree.” And that’s not a given: “They are the important decision-maker at this point in time.”

Bridges agreed, saying Luxon shouldn’t take Seymour for granted and that ACT could, in fact, drive an even harder bargain than NZ First because they got more votes and campaigned on “real change”.

Although Bridges thinks Luxon has the competence to wrangle a three-way government, he warns it might not be as easy as he thinks.

“Psychologically, National’s in the position of wanting to get on with it, they feel like they won, they want to be the government.

“There’s a sense out there that, ‘Oh, it’s all gonna come together, it’s gonna be nice’. It might not.”

It’s not just the divvying up of responsibilities and policy gains Luxon will have to manage, it’s the personalities.

“He’s got this delicate sort of tightrope walk to balance things between these two very strong, opinionated, egotistical – because we all are in politics – leaders,” Bridges warns.

Says Roy: “I think David Seymour’s very sincere when he says that Winston is untrustworthy – and there’s plenty of evidence to support that. And we don’t need to go back any further than last week with the tweeting experience to support that.”

Roy was referring to Peters’ tweet saying, “We waited until today to find out, for the first time, that the PM’s office received information about the March 15 terrorist attack before the massacre took place.”

Actually, we learned that information at a press conference with Jacinda Ardern two days after the terror attack.

Mark pushes back on the idea that NZ First will want loads of portfolios, saying it’s not all about baubles: “When we did the deal in 2005 with Helen Clark, I didn’t ask for a ministerial portfolio, nor did anyone else. We sat outside of government and Winston had the Ministry of Foreign Affairs outside of government.”

And, he said, in 2017, Bill English offered NZ First more portfolios than Jacinda Ardern and yet Peters still chose to go with Labour: “And I will tell you straight, in the last coalition negotiations National offered more ministerial posts.”

To which Bridges added: “I can confirm that – some of us were flinching!”

Where the Tova alternative coalition talks get really spicy is on the topic of National’s tax cuts and the enormous hurdles the government they lead could face in getting that cash into voters’ back pockets. To hear all that, plus analysis of the likelihood of NZ First choosing to sit on the opposition benches and Simon Bridges’ reality check for Luxon about the pace of policy change, listen to the full Tova podcast.

With Thanks Reference to: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301001152/tova-podcast-exleadership-of-national-act-nz-first-predict-trouble-for-chris-luxons-tax-cuts